Questions:

• We use AiLA-V001 which is a vol index created to measure the markets view on volatility.
• The AiLA-V001 index was constructed from liquid options across the most liquid commodities.
• Can we observe any relationships between the AiLA alpha index (AiLA S series) performance and the prevailing volatility conditions reflected by the AiLA-V001?

Approach:

• Given the lack of data sufficiency with one single AiLA index, we pooled many AiLA indices together for the analysis.
• Investigated the expected return historically for the AiLA indices, conditional on different volatility circumstances.
• We use implied volatility and vol index interchangeably as vol index constitutes a basket of implied volatility

• Split data into three bins based on the prevailing IV index values, i.e. level of volatility.
• Weak indication of expected returns to be larger during periods with higher implied volatility.
• The indication disappear when normalizing the returns to the sample std.dev. of their corresponding bin.
• Therefore, in case of a significant effect, it would primarily be explained by the different size of the returns rather than the ability to predict their sign.
• Indication of a uniform index performance when traded on a risk adjusted basis.

• Split data into three bins based on the prevailing change of IV index values, i.e. decreasing, flat or increasing IV.
• Indicates a different pattern between long-short and long-only AiLA indices.
• The AiLA long-short indices indicates a tendency to perform well in both a decreasing as well as increasing IV environment.
• The AiLA long-only indices indicates a tendency of performing best in a decreasing IV environment and to historically loose money during increasing IV periods.
• The long-only pattern appears intuitively consistent with the typical IV development during a market crash period, e.g. such as the first half of 2020.

• The performance pattern w.r.t increasing and decreasing IV is generally reflected also when broken down to an individual AiLA index level.
• Here 11 out of the 15 long-short AiLA indices yield an expected return historically larger during increasing IV than decreasing IV.
• All 4 of the long-only AiLA indices yield a smaller expected return during increasing IV than decreasing IV, with negative increasing IV values.
• It should, however, be noted that the limited data set and corresponding large statistical errors generally makes it difficult to draw strong general conclusions.